竞争性假设分析法在群体性事件情报预警中的应用

目前，边防部门对于群体性事件预警情报的分析缺乏科学系统的工作流程和分析思路，受思维定势、先入为主等主观因素的影响较为严重。随着科学技术的不断发展，群体性事件预警情报的来源不断扩展，数量不断攀升，如何进行准确的情报分析，成为边防部门面临的一个亟待解决的问题。分析了竞争性假设分析法在群体性事件情报预警中的可行性和实际应用，对预警情报的分析工作有一定的借鉴价值。     

UCAV编队对地攻击智能决策系统总体结构

UCAV编队对地攻击是未来战争制信息权和制空权的关键所在,结合无人作战飞机(UCAV)与有人驾驶飞机各自的特点和优势,提出了UCAV编队对地攻击系统的基本组成和对地攻击流程.根据UCAV编队对地攻击的战术决策类型和决策方式,构造了UCAV编队对地攻击智能决策系统的总体结构并且提出了决策系统应该解决的关键技术,详细分析了所建立的UCAV编队对地攻击决策系统的决策方式和决策流程,并且对该系统所涉及的关键技术进行了详细的研究.     

Parallel machine scheduling with eligibility constraints: A composite dispatching rule to minimize total weighted tardiness

We study a parallel machine scheduling problem, where a job j can only be processed on a specific subset of machines M_j, and the M_j subsets of the n jobs are nested. We develop a two‐phase heuristic for minimizing the total weighted tardiness subject to the machine eligibility constraints. In the first phase, we compute the factors and statistics that characterize a problem instance. In the second phase, we propose a new composite dispatching rule, the Apparent Tardiness Cost with Flexibility considerations (ATCF) rule, which is governed by several scaling parameters of which the values are determined by the factors obtained in the first phase. The ATCF rule is a generalization of the well‐known ATC rule which is very widely used in practice. We further discuss how to improve the dispatching rule using some simple but powerful properties without requiring additional computation time, and the improvement is quite satisfactory. We apply the Sequential Uniform Design Method to design our experiments and conduct an extensive computational study, and we perform tests on the performance of the ATCF rule using a real data set from a large hospital in China. We further compare its performance with that of the classical ATC rule. We also compare the schedules improved by the ATCF rule with what we believe are Near Optimal schedules generated by a general search procedure. The computational results show that especially with a low due date tightness, the ATCF rule performs significantly better than the well‐known ATC rule generating much improved schedules that are close to the Near Optimal schedules. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 249–267, 2017     

Terrorism as Method in Nepali Maoist Insurgency, 1996–2016

During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times.     

(Re-)emergent orders: understanding the negotiation(s) of rebel governance

Abstract

The concept of order is often neglected in the study of conflict – seemingly such a ‘disordering’ process. With the recent increase in the examination of rebel governance however, bringing order back into our understanding of rebel and insurgent groups has much to offer in exploring the everyday politics which connect authorities, rebel movements and the population itself, in a complex mass of intersubjective and power-based interactions and negotiations. Rebels both shape and are shaped by existing forms of order in complex and ongoing ways. This article explores how varying elements interact in the negotiation, framing and enforcement of order and develops an original analytical framework to examine the perpetual negotiations of rebel movements in their attempts to cement their control.     

What-If at Waterloo. Carl von Clausewitz’s use of historical counterfactuals in his history of the Campaign of 1815

In this article, I analyze the use of historical counterfactuals in the Campaign of 1815 by Carl von Clausewitz (1780–1831). Such is the importance of counterfactuals in this work that its gist can be given in a series of 25 counterfactuals. I claim that a central role is played by evaluative counterfactuals. This specific form of counterfactuals is part of a didactic method that allows Clausewitz to teach young officers a critical method that prepares them for the challenge of decision-making in real warfare. I conclude with the enduring relevance of Clausewitz’s use of evaluative counterfactuals for contemporary military historiography.     

(修，2撤3)关键几何参数对超声速膨胀器流场和性能影响的数值研究

为了揭示关键几何参数对超声速膨胀器流动特性影响的规律,对3种隔板安装角和5种出进口面积比超声速膨胀器设计工况下的流场进行了数值研究。结果表明：随隔板安装角增加,斜激波向出口迁移,斜激波强度略有降低,超声速膨胀器膨胀比减小,效率提高;随出进口面积比增加,流道内高速区显著扩大并逐渐靠近压力面,斜激波增强,出口流动损失增加,超声速膨胀器膨胀比增大,效率降低。为获得综合性能较优超声速膨胀器结构,需在较小出进口面积比和较大隔板安装角之间做折衷选择。     

航拍图像车辆检测中的圆形滤波器HOG特征快速计算

航拍图像中车辆一般近似为矩形结构,因此通过统计检测窗口中的梯度方向直方图并根据梯度主方向估计车辆朝向,将检测窗口旋转到相应方向进行分类器判别。车辆检测采用级联boosting分类器和梯度方向直方图特征,针对旋转窗口中梯度方向直方图特征的计算,设计一种基于圆形滤波器的梯度方向直方图特征。与传统基于积分直方图的梯度方向直方图特征提取方法相比,显著提高了旋转窗口中梯度方向直方图特征的计算效率,在计算每个像素的梯度时采用查找表代替梯度向量的求模和角度计算也减小了计算量。使用真实图像进行的实验表明,该车辆检测算法快速高效。     

带三维落角约束的寻的导弹制导与姿控系统设计

针对带三维落角约束的寻的导弹制导与姿态控制系统设计问题,提出一种基于终端滑模控制和扩张状态观测器的六自由度制导控制系统设计方法。建立包含模型不确定项的寻的导弹六自由度质心与绕质心模型,设计内外双层环路六自由度制导控制系统框架;基于弹-目三维相对运动模型和坐标系转移矩阵建立以攻角和侧滑角为输入的三维全耦合导引方程,利用终端滑模控制方法和扩展状态观测器得到期望的攻角和侧滑角并将其转化为对应的俯仰、偏航和滚转角指令;根据线性形式的寻的导弹绕质心动力学方程,设计与俯仰、偏航和滚转角相关的滑模面向量,并利用终端滑模控制方法和扩张状态观测器得到寻的导弹的副翼偏角、方向舵偏角和俯仰舵偏角指令。六自由度数值仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性和鲁棒性,并证明了该制导控制系统设计方法能以较少的控制设计参数完成预设的制导控制任务。